Ontario Budget 2026: there is no plan.
The Ford government released a budget yesterday that might well have been entitled “tired and short on ideas” instead of “a plan to protect Ontario”
It’s been too long since our last post, as I’ve had my head down focused on the provincial nomination race in Scarborough Southwest (help us here!) and serving constituents at the Danforth office. You can read this full Q&A with Beach Metro about next steps.
The rundown on the Ontario Budget can be found below. We also just finished recording a piece on the notwithstanding clause (with the Bill 21 hearing before the Supreme Court earlier this week), which should be out soon. And the Uncommons podcast is returning after a hiatus, with guest Karina Gould.
Quick federal update.
At the federal level, by-elections are underway likely to lead to a Liberal majority, and the Carney government has maintained a relentless focus on the economy and trade, affordability, and defence. The groceries and essentials benefit was a major spend to address affordability, and lifting the HST on new homes will help to some degree as well. We’ve also already hit our 2% NATO target (promise kept), and Carney has been leading the push for a new defence and resilience bank.
More should still be expected to come on the housing and clean energy / environment files, as neither is operating yet at a scale commensurate to the challenge. And some caution is warranted on the importance of improving legislation with the help of experts and advocates at committee. We’ve seen mistakes and missed opportunities on a few occasions now - C-3, C-5, C-9, C-12 - and these are even more important lessons to learn if we earn a majority.
Carney’s Davos speech has also been tested, as Trump and Netanyahu’s ill-considered war against Iran and Israel’s plans to occupy Lebanon have created chaos and instability, killed too many civilians, and led to skyrocketing gas prices here at home when affordability was already a top concern. After an odd initial statement, the Canadian government has more recently and rightly remained critical of the Iranian regime while also emphasizing the importance of international law, protecting civilians, and restoring shipping routes as part of a ceasefire. Perhaps the MAGA base will remember the “No New Wars” pledge at some point in advance of the midterms.
Of course, Carney brings a seriousness to the role that stands in stark contrast to the alternatives. It also stands in stark contrast to the glaring lack of serious leadership we see here in Ontario.
Ontario Budget 2026: there is no plan.
It’s more apparent than ever that it’s past time for change.
The Ford government released a budget yesterday that might well have been entitled “tired and short on ideas” instead of “a plan to protect Ontario.” A series of re-re-announcements more than anything, mediocre past hits on repeat.
The temporary move to lift HST from new homes (in partnership with the feds) and the tax cut for small businesses will help a little for sure. Of course, it’s all deficit financed in a bloated and mostly directionless budget that would have the Tories screaming if any Liberal thought to introduce it.
Transit policy still reads like it’s scrawled on the back of a napkin, and the uncosted tunnel is top of that list. The One Fare Program extension is welcome, but it pales in comparison to the delays and mismanagement of the GO Expansion we need to connect our province. When we talk at the federal level about building with speed and scale, this isn’t it.
Public education is an embarrassing state of affairs, with total education sector funding now at the lowest percentage it’s been in thirty years. An entire generation is getting less than they need and deserve. Yes, there is some modest increase in funding for autism services, but it won’t go nearly far enough for the tens of thousands of kids on the waiting list. And while the government correctly identifies a real need - namely purchasing gaps for teachers - their proposed solution is more friendly to Staples than it is for the classroom.
Overall, funding for public education since 2018 hasn’t kept pace with inflation, and this year is no different. It is cuts by stealth and a clear signal that our kids don’t matter to this administration. They somehow find funding to put cops in our schools when we don’t have enough teachers.
And for higher education, the Ford government is moving forward with deep cuts to OSAP, pushing post-secondary opportunities away from the students in the greatest need and saddling those who can least afford it with more debt.
On housing, starts have fallen off a cliff, the Minister tells us he doesn’t even think about meeting the government’s own target - “I’m not a housing expert” is the refrain - and while the tax cut is decent short-term relief for some, there’s no support for municipalities to speed up timeline approvals, no move to use new technology, and no effort to address homelessness or support non-market housing.
On healthcare, expanded homecare is welcome as is continued funding for building new hospitals. But there remains a gap from what the Ontario Hospital Association needs, and the Ford cuts to safe consumption sites will be measured in lives lost and increased emergency department visits the system can’t afford.
Hallway healthcare is worse than it has ever been, an issue Ford told us he’d fix back in 2018. If he can find “a few billion” for a Toronto convention centre no one asked for, the rest of Ontario should be asking why “a few billion” can’t be found for healthcare.
On public safety, the focus on expanded prison capacity is an absolute necessary. But so too is making the justice system function, and that’s a continued failing. It all comes on the heels of a cartoonishly failed attempt to silence protest, instead of focusing seriously on the effective enforcement of existing laws against harassment, intimidation, and hate.
On energy, the government is deficit financing untargeted consumer subsidies but leaving it entirely to the federal government to finance long-term clean energy investments that will create jobs and opportunity. We need a serious and strategic plan to drive economic opportunity through clean, affordable, and sovereign energy.
That’s just it, though. There is never a plan. Never has been a plan. Never will be a plan.
Ontario is overpriced and mismanaged, and there’s nothing in the budget that takes seriously the cost of living.
There is, though, a little change buried in the budget to our freedom of information laws. Yes, they are gutting transparency laws retroactively (retroactively!) because Ford doesn’t want the business of the province he’s conducted on his personal cell phone to be made public. After the Greenbelt and Skills Development scandals, why bother with transparency anyway?
We deserve better. It’s as simple as that.