Dear America, remember Canada is your friend and ally

The longstanding relationship between our countries is unique in the world. It's the most important relationship our two countries have. And we should be building on that success, not undermining it.

***There’s been some chaotic news today in Ottawa and I’ll have more to say on that later, but for now here’s a message to our American friends. It’s been frustrating to watch some Canadian leaders dismiss a Team Canada approach, just as it’s been maddening to see the threat of tariffs in response to a trade imbalance and minor border challenges.

Dear America,

I’m a big fan of Jefferson, Franklin and the founding fathers, I played baseball my whole life, not hockey, and I’ve got family in Michigan who I love a lot, even if they gave me a Tigers shirt for Christmas.

Joking, obviously, it’s at least a playoff team.

I also happen to be a Canadian Member of Parliament. And I was public in my concerns that a Trump presidency wouldn’t be good for Canada, posing a threat to our economy with tariffs.

And I’ve got to admit that it’s not starting out great.

Or course, we can still course correct. And we should. Because it’s actually in both of our interests.

To start, there’s a broader conversation worth having about tariffs, that most beautiful of words.

In the short-term they offer protection for certain industries from foreign competition and they generate revenue. I get it, it’s easy politics!

Fact is, unfortunately, consumers often ultimately pay the higher costs and, used indiscriminately, tariffs have significant and negative consequences for the economy more broadly.

Your economy. Our economy too.

As the Tax Foundation puts it: “historical evidence shows tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.”

If only we’d all been paying attention in class.

And maybe we just agree to disagree on tariffs as a tool to use.

The better question I’m struggling to understand:

Why Canada?

Well, President-elect Trump kicked off the tariff conversation by blaming Canada for people, crime, and drugs pouring into the United States.

He said one of his first executive orders would be to charge Canada with a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US, until such time as, I quote: “Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

The president-elect has gone on to complain about a massive trade imbalance with Canada and trolled our Prime Minister at least three times now about Canada becoming a 51st state. Funny, disrespectful, terrifying, take your pick.

The trade deficit really shouldn’t be a reason for weaponizing tariffs against your closest ally.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce notes that “in 2023, U.S. exports of goods and services to Canada were $440.9 billion while imports from Canada were $481.6 billion. As a result, the trade deficit with Canada decreased to $40.6 billion (USD).”

Yes, it’s up significantly since the new NAFTA was negotiated, and yes it’s increased from last year, but in the third quarter of 2024, the last data we have, it leveled off to $9.4 billion.

But what does it even mean for you?

Well, first, any trade deficit really just means money coming into Canada in exchange for goods flowing into the US. No one is “ripping off the U.S.”. These are all market transactions, or you know, the Art of the Deal.

Second, this isn’t a question of manufacturing jobs lost in the US due to cheap labour, improper subsidies, or unfair trade practices. Remember, this is Canada we’re talking about.

The trade imbalance is largely explained by crude oil exports - and the growth of the trade imbalance is similarly explained by the growth in energy exports from Canada to the U.S. Simply put, the U.S. economy would be less productive without this energy-related trade.

And third, free trade has brought huge economic benefits to both of our countries. We are only 40 million people here in Canada. And we represent 14.5% of all American exports.

Yeah, yeah, that’s all well and good, Canadian MP. But what about all those drugs, crime, and illegal aliens coming from your Great White North?

Let’s turn to the data. It’s limited because we only know what we catch, that is, we can see the people and drugs intercepted by US and Canadian Border agents.

(See here for a spreadsheet with the full breakdown, all data collected from: CBSA drugs/guns stats, IRCC irregular border crosser stats, US drug seizure stats, US border encounters, and US weapons and ammunition seizures).

What does that data tell us?

Of all the drugs intercepted coming into the US, less than 6% is coming from Canada.

And the scourge that is fentanyl? It is a scourge, and in good Canadian fashion, I apologize sincerely for this. The Canadian border represents 0.1% of the fentanyl intercepted by US agents. I’m sorry.

When it comes to migrants crossing our borders, more people have come to Canada from the US over the last two years than left from Canada to the US.

Now, fairly, the numbers have shifted in the last two years. And again, I’m sorry. Of all irregular border migration into the US, Canada represents, wait for it, 0.6%.

And what about illegal guns, a missing element of the president-elect’s concern about illegal people and goods flooding across the border?

Well, since January 2022, we’ve seen just over 1,000 seizures of weapons and ammunition coming from Canada to the US. In contrast, there were 70,000 firearms and prohibited weapons seized coming in the other direction. An illegal gun deficit that the President-elect will hopefully take just as seriously.

Maybe the worst part of all of this: it’s distraction politics.

The US and Canada should be working hand in hand on our collective defence and security - and yes, Canada needs to better do our part on this front, we should be working together to protect our North American supply chains, to realize the promise of critical minerals as necessary to both energy independence and a clean transition, and much more.

The longstanding relationship between Canada and the US is unique in the world. It is the most important relationship our two respective countries have. And we should be building on that success, not undermining it.

But don’t take it from me. American leaders have long understood the unique importance of Canada-US relations.

Franklin Roosevelt referred to it as an example for other nations of the world. Dwight Eisenhower rightly said that each of us is a better and stronger and more influential nation because we can rely on one another.

In addressing our Canadian Parliament in 1961, here’s what JFK had the say:

“Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies. Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder.”

And if you just don’t trust a democrat, here’s Reagan in Quebec City, visiting Canada on his first official visit to kick off his second term:

“We’re more than friends and neighbors and allies; we are kin, who together have built the most productive relationship between any two countries in the world today. This is my first trip outside the United States since I was sworn into a second term. Four years ago, I took my first trip as president and, then too, I came to Canada. This is not a coincidence. For the United States, there is no more important relationship than our tie with Canada.”

To put America First is to have Canada at your side. And to put Canada First means exactly the same.