On this Uncommons Weekly, it’s an international round up focused on the recent NATO summit and defence spending, the ICJ’s recent advisory opinion, the need for leadership to address democratic backsliding around the world, and what the politics south of the border mean for Canada.
We’re aiming to do another round up next month before we resume on a weekly basis once Parliament resumes sitting. Let us know if there are issues or questions you’d like to see answered in the next one.
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Welcome to Uncommons Weekly.
We’re turning our attention to international politics this week.
When the Liberal government first took office in 2015, Trudeau said that many allies worried that Canada has lost its compassionate and constructive voice in the world. And he had a simple message: Canada is back.”
Initially, that meant doing our humanitarian part and welcoming tens of thousands of Syrian refugees. And we’ve continued to play a significant role in welcoming refugees ever since.
But what of other obligations, like defence spending and international development assistance?
Recently, the Prime Minister attended a NATO summit in Washington, and Canada is now an outlier in the alliance, one of a minority of countries to spend less than 2% of GDP on defence.
By way of a quick history lesson: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an alliance founded in 1949, in response to Soviet aggression in central and eastern Europe. Lester Pearson, then the secretary of state for external affairs, described the treaty as “not a pact for war, but a pledge for peace and progress.” Canadians helped to shape the treaty.
In 2006, NATO defence ministers committed to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Despite zero progress, the Harper government joined other NATO members and formalized the pledge in 2014 to be met by 2024.
And here we are. It’s 2024, and 23 of 31 allies are expected to meet or exceed the target compared to only 3 allies ten years ago. Canada is not among them.
Given both Liberals and Conservatives share the 2% commitment, let’s compare notes.
In 2006, Canada spent 1.2% of GDP on defence. In 2015, Canada spent 1.2%. Through 10 years of Harper’s government, spending averaged 1.185%.
Under Trudeau, spending has averaged more than 1.3%. This year it comes in at 1.37%. Part of the increase is more flexible guidance rather than new spending, but factor in the new defence policy and Budget 2024 commitments, and spending is projected to increase to 1.76% of GDP by 2029-30.
Now, there’s still reason to criticize. We are still well below our commitment in 2024. Five years from now, despite new spending, we will still be below our commitment, though the gap will have closed significantly. The government should have budgeted the 2% in greater detail, rather than announced a 2032 timeline without any costing as a result of pressure at the summit. And let’s be clear: to close the gap entirely from existing budget commitments would take an additional $9 billion per year in new spending.
But if you’re going to say the PM was treated as a human pinata, if you’re going to politicize the issue, you should probably have your own plan.
Poilievre says he will “work towards” this pledge, which sounds the same as the Liberal Party but without the conviction of actual dollars on the table.
He claims Trudeau has demolished the military, a lie entirely contradicted by actual budget commitments. He says we need to end wokeness in the military, without any mention of the need to take sexual harassment seriously though and without any understanding of the need to accommodate diversity to grow our military ranks.
And he says he’ll pay for the 2% target by cutting foreign aid.
This is all deeply unserious stuff.
We are already well short of the different Pearsonian target of 0.7% of GDP to be spent on foreign aid. There is no amount of backroom bureaucracy or improper development assistance to cut that would come anywhere close to $9 billion, and cuts would mean walking away from Ukraine and other desperate situations around the world.
We need more development assistance to help prevent democratic backsliding, not less. Look at Bangladesh today, as one example.
The military is in the street, the internet has been shut down, and democratic rights have been violated. We need to renew our commitment to strengthening democracy in Bangladesh and around the world. And that will often mean backing up our words with action.
Our goals should be security and peace, and that military spending and development assistance are complementary ideas if we take those goals seriously and if Canada is truly back.
Now, Canada wasn’t only a founding member of NATO, we also played a key role in the creation of the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.
You wouldn’t know it from Canada’s public statements, but the ICJ recently released an advisory opinion in which it determined that a number of Israeli government policies are contrary to international law as an illegally occupying power: the expansion of settlements with the intention to create irreversible effects on the ground, the exploitation of natural resources, the systemic failure to prevent or punish attacks by settlers, restrictions on movement, and more. This is, of course, consistent with Canada’s long-standing foreign policy as it relates to settlements.
Going forward, with a robust commitment to international development assistance, Canada must play a leading role in the reconstruction of Gaza. But to get there, we need stability and a credible path towards Palestinian self-determination.
As the ICJ put it, there are obligations on other states, including Canada, to cooperate with the UN to ensure an end to Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and the full realization of the right of Palestinian people to self-determination. We need to show leadership here, and to play a proactive role in advancing peace.
Of course, as much as Canada can play a role, there will be no path to peace without the United States. And when Congress is hosting Netanyahu, a man who the ICC chief prosecutor is looking to arrest, it doesn’t bode well. No one should be above the law.
Israel is a long-standing ally as a democracy in the Middle East, in part because of its commitment to rights and the rule of law. We have seen far too much democratic backsliding there, and the continued refusal to take international law seriously has only gotten worse.
Of course, the US has its own challenges with democratic backsliding to deal with.
Earlier this month, we saw former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump survive an assassination attempt by a sniper at a campaign rally. We don’t know what motivated the attacker, but we should all condemn violence.
Here in Canada, MP safety has been a growing concern. My colleague Pam Damoff isn’t running again in part because of the toxicity and harassment she’s been subject to.
Staying with American politics - and no less a story - current President Joe Biden announced he’s not running. Current VP Kamala Harris will be taking his spot at the top of the ticket.
In his address, Biden acknowledged what many people have been saying for months: this is about more than one person. It’s a decision that puts the nation above his own interests. It’s what’s best for democracy and advancing the interests of Americans.
And I would add, in the best interests of Canadians.
It’s easy to run down a list of concerns about a second Trump presidency. His team’s Project 2025 encourages regulating a woman’s body. But regulating the fossil fuel industry is a bridge too far.
But I’ll leave American politics to my American friends. And I’ll just say that Donald Trump is bad for Canada. He was bad for Canada in his first term, and he’ll be bad for Canada if he gets a second term.
We have a long history of working with American administrations, regardless of partisan stripe. But Trump poses a real threat to our economy with tariffs and to our security with the possible abandonment of our allies.
As President Reagan put it: we’re more than friends and neighbours and allies; we are kind, who together have built the most productive relationship between any two countries in the world today.
To my American friends: let’s not forget that.
To close, let me just say that my thoughts are with those impacted by the fires in Jasper and beyond. A terrible tragedy. There’s much more for us all to do, working together, to improve our emergency preparedness. A topic for another time.
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